1: For business communications, email will slowly be sidelined in favour of Groove (and lesser IM-type systems). The benefits of ubiquitous presence, ubiquitous authentication and private shared space are too great to ignore. Email-based systems integration (notification, alerts, workflow) will start using other platforms, too: IM, Groove, Web Services.

2: Spontaneous association has to happen. Communication will out. Email is the worst of all possible solutions for communication, but because it has 100% deployment, it'll continue to be used.

"Communication will out"

Wherever people get together - especially if they have a shared activity - they'll communicate using all means necessary. Using any means available within the context of that association.

In the pre-Napster days of MP3 file sharing, I remember seeing FTP servers where the local up- and down-loaders held threaded discussion conversations. Quite extensive discussions. Using... folders! Yes: someone would write a comment as the name of a new folder on the FTP site. Others would respond by creating sub-folders named for their comments. Any means available within the context.

The challenge - fundamentally a business challenge, and one which I think Groove is well suited to solve - is not to provide the raw communications channels, but to provide an appropriate context for interaction. Give people a good place to do things together, and then build tools around that place (that process, that activity) which afford rich communication.

Spontaneous association then becomes a question not of "how can I talk to x@y", but of "where can I be with x@y". Places, people, and then tools.