A wager on the Turing test between Mitchell Kapor and Raymond Kurzweil. Kurzweil has some explanations of why he thinks, by 2029, a machine intelligence will be able to pass convincingly as a human:

We will not program human intelligence link by link as in some massive expert system. Nor is it the case that we will simply set up a single genetic (i.e., evolutionary) algorithm and have intelligence at human levels automatically evolve itself. Rather we will set up an intricate hierarchy of self-organizing systems, based largely on the reverse engineering of the human brain, and then provide for its education. However, this learning process can proceed hundreds if not thousands of times faster than the comparable process for humans.